Portfolio Strategies
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| Unusual Uncertainty |
| Wednesday, August 11, 2010 |
| The US economy is facing unusual uncertainty The latest data release stream conforms slowing growth Weak consumer confidence and continued household deleveraging is driving consumer retrenchment Expect a slowdown of economic growth to 2-2.5% in 2H10 "Unusual Uncertainty": these are the words used by Fed chairman Bernanke in his |
| Top Kill |
| Tuesday, June 8, 2010 |
| Markets are overwhelmed by negative developments. The latest flare up in the Middle East is not helpful, adding to the jitters of markets already bedeviled by the ongoing financial tensions in the eurozone and the environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. And yet, the economic data continues to flow on a positive note, indicating that the US economic |
| Stronger Recovery, Europe Jitters |
| Wednesday, May 12, 2010 |
| Stronger Recover, Europe Jitters A more durable basis for economic growth: Both hard data and anecdotic evidence point to the strengthening of the US and global economic upswing. While the financial stresses developing in Europe present a challenge to the global economy, its effects remain for the time being limited, and as such do not |
| Activity Data Moving To The Upside |
| Thursday, April 8, 2010 |
| Activity Data Moving To The Upside Activity data moving to the upside as the US consumer shows signs of life The pace of global manufacturing recovery picks up The Fed ends its mortgage bonds purchase program as Bernanke signals intention to shrink back the Fed balance sheet Sharp disinflation |
| The Recovery is Nascent |
| Tuesday, March 9, 2010 |
| The Recovery Is Nascent Bernanke's recent semi-annual testimony to the US Congress speaks of a "nascent recovery", with a faster rebound being stymied by the stressed employment situation, as well as the struggling real estate sector. His cautious language was supported by the definitely mixed, |
| Two Divergences |
| Wednesday, February 10, 2010 |
| Two Divergences As the economy limps into 2010, we are seeing two on-going stubborn divergences. The first one is in the United States between the manufacturing recovery and the still-weak consumer demand. The second one is between the halting economic recovery in the G-10 and the much stronger macroeconomic performance of |
| A Fond Farewell to 2009? Sure! But What's Next? |
| Wednesday, January 13, 2010 |
| A FOND FAREWELL TO 2009? SURE! BUT WHAT'S NEXT? As we put the 2009 "annus horribilis" behind us, the world is slowly emerging from the deepest recession in 70 years. The major economies are officially out of recession, Chinese growth, at 8.5%, is likely to exceed earlier expectations, and other major emerging markets are |
| The Economic Recovery Broadens |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2009 |
| THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY BROADENS A Third Quarter improvement: The third quarter GDP release shows that the nation's output grew at 3.5% (q/q) after four consecutive quarters of decline, beating the market expectations. Further analysis of the numbers shows that for the first time in four quarters, both personal consumption and private investment made a |
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