Portfolio Strategies

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Like a Cat Up a Tree
Friday, May 10, 2013
The IMF warns of three-speed global growth in the context of a sluggish global economy First-quarter US economic performance improved, but remained below expectations Data releases indicate economic slippage at the end of 1Q13, but strong April payrolls offer some hope of re-acceleration in 2H13 Fiscal tightening will continue to constrain
 
Taking the Foot Off the Accelerator
Thursday, April 18, 2013
The change in tone of the Fed presages an earlier QE-III exit Once again, inept eurozone policies trigger another crisis, this time in Cyprus US macro data indicates an acceleration of growth in 1Q13, but a disappointing March payrolls report may point to a 2Q13 slowdown As US equity markets break new records, concerns about correction risks
 
March Madness
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Policy risks in Europe and the United States cast a pall on an otherwise improved economic performance of the US economy Equity markets soar to new highs Data releases remain positive A unexpectedly strong payroll report in March underscores economic resiliency Tax increases and high gasoline prices cut into consumer spending Rotation of
 
Acceleration
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
The economy shrank slightly in 4Q12, but seemed to recover by year-end Economic data releases point to acceleration Healing of the housing sector continues Job creation continues at a steady, but clearly inadequate pace Some of the global risks have faded, at least temporarily Equity markets buoyant in January across the board, with key
 
Apocalypse Not!
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
2012: Calamity avoided, as compromise bill extends Bush-era tax cuts for all but the top 1% Data releases show a resilient consumer, a real estate revival and manufacturing on the mend Labor markets show dull but steady improvement, unemployment at 7.8% An early exit (before year-end 2013) from quantitative easing is a possibility Fiscal
 
A Challenging Start to President Obama's Second Term
Monday, November 19, 2012
President Obama wins reelection, but faces a mixed economic picture, with significant medium-term challenges. A first task to handle is the fiscal cliff Super-storm Sandy causes major short-term disruptions, but long-term economic impact should be minimal Labor markets deliver a string positive surprises The eurozone quiets down…for
 
The Cliffs of Fall
Thursday, October 18, 2012
“O the mind, mind has mountains; cliffs of fall Frightful, sheer, no-man-fathomed.” Gerald Manley Hopkins (1844-1889) A weak global economic environment US 2Q12 GDP revised downwards A mixed picture for the US economy, but a positive surprise in September payrolls Central banks open-ended stimulus (or promise thereof) continues Europe
 
Waiting for Signor Draghi
Monday, September 17, 2012
The European Central Bank (ECB) unveils a bazooka and commits to unlimited sovereign bond purchases Recent data on housing activities and prices provide a positive surprise Latest data releases in the United States improve somewhat, but the recovery remains tepid The economic weakness was reflected in the disappointing August payrolls number,
 
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